After Barack Obama twice carried every state in this category, Donald Trump flipped all but Minnesota, and his loss there was very narrow. Right now, 10 seats currently held by Republicans are either likely to be won by Democrats or lean slightly toward them, while another two dozen Republican-held seats are designated as tossups — political coin flips that could just as easily break in either direction. Conclusions I find no evidence that Russian attempts to target voters in key swing states had any effect on the election results in those states. In order to address the question of whether the Russian interference effort worked, I conducted a multiple regression analysis of the election results at the state level.
Historically Democratic Maine has been drifting to the right recently. In four other races, the incumbent party has outraised the opposition so far, but a newly announced challenger has exhibited early fundraising strength. That may incentivize the next party that wins dual control of Congress and the White House to eliminate the filibuster in order to pass major legislation — something that several Democratic presidential contenders are already proposing. Figure 1: Scatterplot of actual Trump margin by predicted Trump margin in the states Note: Alaska and District of Columbia omitted due to lack of state ideology data.
This is effectively the last election of the cycle; McCready seemed to narrowly lose last November to former pastor Mark Harris R , but credible allegations of fraud designed to help Harris prompted a second election. And Bob Hugin damn sure knows it as well. Susan Collins R. This can also be seen in Table 2, which compares the actual and predicted results in the three swing states that ultimately decided the outcome of the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But the district may end up being too hard in a political environment that may not be as Democratic-friendly as it was prior to the midterm.
Microsoft may earn an Affiliate Commission if you purchase something through recommended links in this article. If Republicans lose the 10 seats that currently tilt to the Democrats, they must win at least half of their tossup seats in order to keep control. The election, which features Senate races in four of the five states in this category, will offer a key hint to the partisan future of this group. Initially, the Senate allowed unlimited debate , effectively requiring unanimous consent to vote on any bill, as any member could individually hold up a bill by launching a filibuster.
Whereas trying to affect the national popular vote results would probably be prohibitively expensive, efforts to target a few key swing states could be much more cost-effective and harder to detect. In fact, since the end of the s, it has only happened once: For a brief period from July to February , Democrats held 60 seats. Now, the numbers are flipped, with Sen.
Democratic Sens. But, as will be explored in depth below, there have been very few filibuster-proof majorities in recent decades, and there seems to be no realistic path for either party to get another one any time soon. The Ruby Red Republican category encompasses the 20 states which are heavily Republican and show no sign of changing any time soon. In Alabama, the final toss-up race, Democratic Sen.
Senate run from Colorado. He did about one point worse than predicted in Michigan, about two points worse than predicted in Pennsylvania, and between two and three points worse than predicted in Wisconsin. And in , former Gov.
Bullock won the governorship as a Democrat in , despite the state going solidly for Trump. While the short-term future here is murky, the long-term picture seems to favor the GOP, further imperiling Democratic chances at reaching 60 seats. Table 2: Predicted and actual Trump margin in key swing states Source: Data compiled by author. In other words, Obama was running at or ahead of his approval rating more consistently back then compared to Trump now.
Going through these regions will help illustrate the challenges both parties face in trying to win a filibuster-proof Senate majority. According to an August poll by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Hickenlooper would have a 51 point lead over the next-closest Democrat in a primary election. As recently as , Republicans held five of the six Senate seats in this category. Running against Sen. And seats in two solid-red districts, outside Buffalo, N.